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<b>First Posted:</b> 11/28/2014<br><br><p>It is fair to say that last week&#8217;s misadventure in Champaign was one of the very lowest on-field moments for Penn State during these tumultuous three years.</p>
<p>It is also fair to say that last week&#8217;s 16-14 loss to Illinois might not have any effect on where the Nittany Lions play in the postseason.</p>
<p>Fortunately for the Lions, they had already earned magic win No. 6, so losing to Illinois was merely humiliating rather than an outright catastrophe. Penn State will get its critical extra practices and still seem likely to wind up in the Bronx for the Pinstripe Bowl. Possibly the Foster Farms Bowl, which is on the same tier as the Pinstripe, out at the 49ers&#8217; new digs in Santa Clara.</p>
<p>And all of that assumes that Penn State indeed loses Saturday to heavily favored Michigan State, a team that looks far tougher than either of the Wisconsin squads the Lions upset after Thanksgiving the past two years.</p>
<p>Yes, a 6-6 Penn State team will probably end up in the same spot as a 7-5 Penn State team.</p>
<p>There are a couple of unsolved variables still out there. Michigan could technically upset Ohio State on Saturday and give the Big Ten 11 bowl-eligible teams instead of 10. Or the Buckeyes could lose the Big Ten title game and potentially drop out of consideration for one of the six CFP bowls.</p>
<p>But for Penn State, the main goal is to just stay out of that bottom rung of bowls affiliated with the Big Ten &#8212; Dallas and Detroit. That seems likely given that the winner of Saturday&#8217;s Illinois-Northwestern clash will be 6-6 and almost certainly slot into one of them. Rutgers, at 6-6 or 7-5, will likely end up in the other, especially because the Scarlet Knights played in the Pinstripe last year.</p>
<p>Remember, the Big Ten now has the final say who plays where, not the bowls themselves.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s my projection, which has the Buckeyes sneaking into the inaugural playoff after winning the league.</p>
<p><strong>CFP TIER</strong></p>
<p>&#8226; Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. No. 1 overall</p>
<p>&#8226; Peach Bowl: Michigan State vs. CFP at-large</p>
<p><strong>BIG TEN TOP TIER</strong></p>
<p>&#8226; Citrus Bowl: Wisconsin vs. SEC</p>
<p>&#8226; Outback Bowl: Minnesota vs. SEC</p>
<p>&#8226; Holiday Bowl: Nebraska vs. Pac-12</p>
<p><strong>BIG TEN MID TIER</strong></p>
<p>&#8226; Taxslayer Bowl: Maryland vs. SEC</p>
<p>&#8226; Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State vs. ACC</p>
<p>&#8226; Foster Farms Bowl: Iowa vs. Pac-12</p>
<p><strong>BIG TEN LOW TIER</strong></p>
<p>&#8226; Heart of Dallas Bowl: Rutgers vs. C-USA</p>
<p>&#8226; Quick Lane Bowl: Northwestern vs. ACC</p>
<p>Of course, the Wolverines could throw a wrench into things by winning. In Columbus. Somehow. Penn State&#8217;s biggest concern might be that the Big Ten doesn&#8217;t get two teams into CFP bowls, potentially bumping teams down a tier.</p>
<p>But for Michigan State to fall out, the Spartans would have to lose in Happy Valley.<hr/><table style="width: 750px;" class="mceItemTable"><tbody><tr><td><img style="float: left;" alt="" src="http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm187/dlevarse/mich-state-10-_zpsdcff6795.gif" height="113" width="150"/></td><td style="font-size: large; text-align: center;"></p>
<p><strong>No. 10 MICHIGAN STATE (9-2, 6-1)</strong></p>
<p><strong>at PENN STATE (6-5, 2-5)</strong></p>
<p>3:30 p.m., Saturday, ABC</td><td><img style="float: right;" alt="" src="http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm187/dlevarse/Penn_State-1.gif" height="113" width="150"/></td></tr></tbody></table><table style="width: 750px; border: 2px solid black;" class="mceItemTable"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; font-size: x-large; background-color: #c00c00; color: white; border: 2px solid black;" colspan="3"><strong>QUARTERBACK</strong></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: justify; font-size: small; border: 2px solid black; padding: 10px;" colspan="3"><img style="float: left;" alt="" src="http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm187/dlevarse/mich-state-10-_zpsdcff6795.gif" height="113" width="150"/>Two quarterbacks trending in opposite directions. More than anyone on the team, Christian Hackenberg just needs a break before the bowl game. He was limping in the second half and took a hard hit on a bootleg for the Lions&#8217; final (meaningful) play last week in which he was asked to throw just five (!) passes in the second half. Connor Cook, meanwhile, has picked up where he left off after winning the Big Ten and the Rose Bowl as a sophomore, leading the Big Ten in passing yards. He&#8217;s second in touchdowns and has thrown only five picks. <strong>EDGE: MSU</strong></td></tr></tbody></table><table style="width: 750px; border: 2px solid black;" class="mceItemTable"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; font-size: x-large; background-color: #c00c00; color: white; border: 2px solid black;" colspan="3"><strong>RUNNING BACK</strong></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: justify; font-size: small; border: 2px solid black; padding: 10px;" colspan="3"><img style="float: left;" alt="" src="http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm187/dlevarse/mich-state-10-_zpsdcff6795.gif" height="113" width="150"/>What crummy timing for Jeremy Langford, who any other year would be one of the most celebrated running backs in the Big Ten and getting some national attention. He has eight straight 100-yard games and a whopping 17 touchdowns. But he plays in a league that boasts all three finalists for the Doak Walker Award (nation&#8217;s best running back) in Melvin Gordon, Tevin Coleman and Ameer Abdullah. Amazing. For Penn State, it&#8217;s hard to imagine a banged-up Bill Belton not giving it a go on senior day. But Akeel Lynch deserves the bulk of the carries. <strong>EDGE: MSU</strong></td></tr></tbody></table><table style="width: 750px; border: 2px solid black;" class="mceItemTable"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; font-size: x-large; background-color: #c00c00; color: white; border: 2px solid black;" colspan="3"><strong>RECEIVER</strong></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: justify; font-size: small; border: 2px solid black; padding: 10px;" colspan="3"><img style="float: left;" alt="" src="http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm187/dlevarse/mich-state-10-_zpsdcff6795.gif" height="113" width="150"/>The Big Ten&#8217;s best receiver may reside in East Lansing. With Allen Robinson not around to go for the three-peat of that honor, it could be the Spartans&#8217; Tony Lippett who comes out on top this year. He tops the Big Ten with 1,071 yards and 10 touchdowns, giving Sparty perhaps the top skill-position trio in the league along with Cook and Langford. And we&#8217;ll have more on Lippett later. Penn State wideouts only caught a measly three passes last week in a run-heavy gameplan, though true freshman Chris Godwin had his first career touchdown. <strong>EDGE: MSU</strong></td></tr></tbody></table><table style="width: 750px; border: 2px solid black;" class="mceItemTable"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; font-size: x-large; background-color: #c00c00; color: white; border: 2px solid black;" colspan="3"><strong>OFFENSIVE LINE</strong></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: justify; font-size: small; border: 2px solid black; padding: 10px;" colspan="3"><img style="float: left;" alt="" src="http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm187/dlevarse/mich-state-10-_zpsdcff6795.gif" width="150"/>On one hand, Penn State&#8217;s line helped Akeel Lynch to a second straight career-best performance last week. On the other, there was a missed opportunity to really dominate a miserable Illinois front seven. It didn&#8217;t happen and the Lions lost the game. It was the first time all year, however, they were basically able to keep the same five starters in the same spots for an entire game. Michigan State has no real weakness anywhere on offense, including up front. The Spartans are effective run or pass and have allowed just nine sacks all year. <strong>EDGE: MSU</strong></td></tr></tbody></table><table style="width: 750px; border: 2px solid black;" class="mceItemTable"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; font-size: x-large; background-color: #c00c00; color: white; border: 2px solid black;" colspan="3"><strong>DEFENSIVE LINE</strong></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: justify; font-size: small; border: 2px solid black; padding: 10px;" colspan="3"><img style="float: right;" alt="" src="http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm187/dlevarse/Penn_State-1.gif" height="113" width="150"/>Like the Ohio State game, this one is a real toss-up. Two great units. The Spartans may boast the top individual talent here in fearsome rush end Shilique Calhoun, but the Lions may have a slight edge across the board, including a not-too-shabby second string that can hold its own. Michigan natives Anthony Zettel and C.J. Olaniyan both have stepped up against the Wolverines in the past and that trend could continue against the Spartans. It&#8217;s one last very tough test if the Lions want to finish the regular season as the nation&#8217;s top run defense. <strong>EDGE: PSU</strong></td></tr></tbody></table><table style="width: 750px; border: 2px solid black;" class="mceItemTable"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; font-size: x-large; background-color: #c00c00; color: white; border: 2px solid black;" colspan="3"><strong>LINEBACKER</strong></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: justify; font-size: small; border: 2px solid black; padding: 10px;" colspan="3"><img style="float: left;" alt="" src="http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm187/dlevarse/mich-state-10-_zpsdcff6795.gif" height="113" width="150"/>This one might have swung Penn State&#8217;s way if there weren&#8217;t lingering questions around the health of Brandon Bell, who sat out last week from recovering from what appeared to be a shoulder or perhaps a pec injury. The Lions badly missed him as a blitzer, as they struggled to pressure the Illini when they switched to Reilly O&#8217;Toole. But Saturday could be the game that clinches Mike Hull&#8217;s Big Ten linebacker of the year award. Sparty is led by Taiwan Jones in the middle. He and Ed Davis have a combined 22 TFL and 10 sacks. <strong>EDGE: MSU</strong></td></tr></tbody></table><table style="width: 750px; border: 2px solid black;" class="mceItemTable"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; font-size: x-large; background-color: #c00c00; color: white; border: 2px solid black;" colspan="3"><strong>SECONDARY</strong></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: justify; font-size: small; border: 2px solid black; padding: 10px;" colspan="3"><img style="float: left;" alt="" src="http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm187/dlevarse/mich-state-10-_zpsdcff6795.gif" height="113" width="150"/>It&#8217;s not as good as last year&#8217;s No Fly Zone unit led by NFLer Darqueze Dennard, but it&#8217;s still very strong. And check this out &#8212; star wideout Tony Lippett is set to open at cornerback this week, making him MSU&#8217;s first two-way starter since 1968. Wow. He&#8217;ll have a great cast around him including ball-hawking safeties Kurtis Drummond (4 INT) and R.J. Williamson (3 INT). Trae Waynes is a very good corner. Penn State wasn&#8217;t able to figure out the slippery Mikey Dudek last week and the Lions showed some fatigue at the end, unable to close out the win. <strong>EDGE: MSU</strong></td></tr></tbody></table><table style="width: 750px; border: 2px solid black;" class="mceItemTable"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; font-size: x-large; background-color: #c00c00; color: white; border: 2px solid black;" colspan="3"><strong>SPECIAL TEAMS</strong></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: justify; font-size: small; border: 2px solid black; padding: 10px;" colspan="3"><img style="float: left;" alt="" src="http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm187/dlevarse/mich-state-10-_zpsdcff6795.gif" height="113" width="150"/>Just a nightmare of a game for the Lions last week. A botched hold cost them three points. A clumsy offsides call on a punt led to seven points on an extended drive. And, though perhaps a fluke, a failure to track down a kickoff that hooked and died in a swirling win gave Illinois a stunning recovery and three more points. That&#8217;s 13 total in a game lost by two. Awful. One small edge for Penn State. Sam Ficken still hasn&#8217;t missed when his kick has actually cleared the line of scrimmage and MSU&#8217;s Michael Geiger missed four in a row earlier this year. <strong>EDGE: MSU</strong></td></tr></tbody></table><table style="width: 750px; border: 2px solid black;" class="mceItemTable"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; font-size: x-large; background-color: #c00c00; color: white; border: 2px solid black;" colspan="3"><strong>PREDICTION</strong></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align: justify; font-size: small; border: 2px solid black; padding: 10px;" colspan="3"><img style="float: left;" alt="" src="http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm187/dlevarse/mich-state-10-_zpsdcff6795.gif" height="113" width="150"/>As mentioned above, this one doesn&#8217;t quite have the same feel as the finales against Wisconsin the past two years. Mainly because, well, this one isn&#8217;t a true finale for the Lions this time around. Though the players wouldn&#8217;t admit it, James Franklin looked to be right on after the Illinois loss when he said he felt the defense was getting worn down after 11 games of having to carry the team on its back. Senior day emotion should offset some of that early on, but the Spartans are just too balanced to hold down forever. <strong>MICHIGAN STATE 27, PENN STATE 10</strong></td></tr></tbody></table></p>

Nittany Notes: PSU-Michigan State game guide