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<p>Try as he might, Mike Gesicki couldn&#8217;t stop himself from smiling.</p><p>Yeah, the Penn State tight end had watched the end of Iowa&#8217;s enormous upset of Michigan on Saturday night like a lot of his teammates. They&#8217;re just not supposed to talk about it.</p><p>&#8220;I was just watching on TV, actually,&#8221; Gesicki said. &#8220;Me and (quarterback Tommy Stevens) were watching it. We were just sitting there watching the game.</p><p>&#8220;It ended the way it did.&#8221;</p><p>Listening to him over the phone, he kept his voice even. But the video of him speaking at Beaver Stadium&#8217;s media room on Tuesday showed him flashing a big grin.</p><p>&#8220;You kinda know how it goes,&#8221; Gesicki said. &#8220;I&#8217;m not going to comment on any of that kind of stuff. But obviously it was definitely an exciting game to watch.&#8221;</p><p>The Wolverines&#8217; loss opened the door for the No. 8 Nittany Lions to reach the Big Ten title game in December. Winning there would give them a decent case to be selected to the College Football Playoff.</p><p>The players may be required to keep their focus on the Rutgers game Saturday night. But that shouldn&#8217;t stop the rest of us from taking a look at Penn State&#8217;s chances.</p><p><strong>No. 1 Alabama</strong></p><p>The reigning national champs have lapped the field. The only major conference unbeaten left standing would have to lose to Auburn (Nov. 26) and then the following week in the SEC championship to be left out.</p><p><strong>No. 2 Ohio State</strong></p><p>Here&#8217;s the big one. And it could end up being the most heated debate in the brief history of the Playoff.</p><p>For Penn State to reach the Big Ten title game and remain in the mix, the Lions will almost certainly need the Buckeyes to knock off Michigan (Nov. 26), finishing the regular season at 11-1.</p><p>In that case, the Bucks would have arguably the best resume in the country &#8212; top-10 wins over Michigan, Wisconsin and potential Big 12 champ Oklahoma, plus another top-25 scalp in Nebraska.</p><p>If it comes down to the committee having to pick between 11-2 Big Ten champ Penn State and an 11-1 Ohio State, things could get dicey.</p><p>&#8220;When there is a small separation between teams, when teams are comparable, then the selection committee has been instructed &#8230; to apply four metrics,&#8221; said Kirby Hocutt, the CFP committee chairman. &#8220;One is conference champions, one is strength of schedule, another is head to head matchups and the fourth is comparable outcomes against common opponents.&#8221;</p><p>Hocutt stressed that those criteria are not weighted in any particular order. Penn State would benefit from a conference title and the head-to-head win. Ohio State would come out on top in the other two categories.</p><p>But could both teams qualify? Sure.</p><p>&#8220;The selection committee has the flexibility, if we believe that two of the best four teams are from the same conference, to make that decision,&#8221; Hocutt said. &#8220;If two teams are clearly in the top four in the country.&#8221;</p><p>For that to happen, though, Penn State could use a few more of the teams on this list to lose.</p><p>Or, all of this could be rendered moot if the Buckeyes were to lose to Michigan State on Saturday in Columbus.</p><p><strong>No. 3 Michigan</strong></p><p>Much more clear cut here. Penn State needs the Fightin&#8217; Harbaughs to lose at home on Saturday to Indiana, or the following week on the road to Ohio State.</p><p>The Wolverines are one of the few teams who would seem to control their own destiny, despite the loss to Iowa. Winning their last two games would put them into the Big Ten title game, and a victory there would easily be enough for a Playoff spot at 12-1.</p><p><strong>No. 4 Clemson</strong></p><p>Penn State folks may not have the stomach to root for Pitt, but the Panthers&#8217; win over Clemson on Saturday likely helped the Lions&#8217; own resume.</p><p>The Tigers are still a heavy favorite to be one of the final four. They finish against Wake Forest and South Carolina before facing a nondescript opponent in the ACC title game.</p><p>Another Tigers loss would be a boost for Penn State, but it isn&#8217;t likely.</p><p><strong>No. 5 Louisville</strong></p><p>This situation is much more interesting. The Cardinals&#8217; loss to Clemson is set to shut them out of the ACC Championship and deprive of them another badly needed quality win.</p><p>Though Louisville is 9-1, strength of schedule is a real problem and it&#8217;s not hard to see a two-loss Big Ten champ being selected over the Cardinals.</p><p>ESPN analysts on Tuesday made their case for Louisville based on the presence of Heisman favorite Lamar Jackson, who could give the Cardinals a real chance to win it all if given a shot.</p><p>But does Jackson&#8217;s national stature play a role for the committee?</p><p>&#8220;No, it doesn&#8217;t,&#8221; Hocutt said. &#8220;We talk about teams, performances of the team. We don&#8217;t talk about individual players in that regard. As we talk about the offensive production for a particular team, a particular individual may be mentioned, but not as it having impact on our rankings.&#8221;</p><p>Still, a Louisville loss would help Penn State. And the Cardinals have a tough one Thursday night at Houston, a team that previously knocked off Oklahoma.</p><p><strong>No. 6 Washington</strong></p><p>This is a team that could cause problems for Penn State.</p><p>The committee hasn&#8217;t been too high on the Huskies so far because their marquee non-conference matchup was against &#8212; wait for it &#8212; Rutgers. The other two games were against Idaho and FCS Portland State.</p><p>But if Washington rebounds from Saturday&#8217;s loss to USC and the Huskies can win out to take the Pac-12 crown at 12-1, it would make it very tough for the Big Ten to get two teams into the Playoff.</p><p>Washington doesn&#8217;t have it easy, though. This Saturday is a winnable game against Arizona State, but the finale against rival Washington State on the road will be tough, same as the Pac-12 championship.</p><p>The committee believes there is currently a decent gap between Washington and the next teams in the rankings.</p><p>&#8220;The margin of separation was small between teams two through six,&#8221; Hocutt said. &#8220;I would say the strength of schedule for Washington is not as strong as those teams that are currently ranked above them, but the committee did think that Washington is deserving of that 6 spot ahead of No. 7 Wisconsin.&#8221;</p><p><strong>No. 7 Wisconsin</strong></p><p>Speaking of those Badgers, Penn State should be pulling for them to beat Purdue and Minnesota to clinch the Big Ten West.</p><p>The Lions would benefit most from facing the toughest opponent possible should they reach the Big Ten championship. Beating the Badgers would knock them out of contention and might be enough to give Penn State the resume it needs to qualify.</p><p><strong>The field</strong></p><p>As for the teams behind Penn State in the standings, the Lions will keep an eye on No. 9 Oklahoma (8-2), which travels to face No. 14 West Virginia (8-1) on Saturday and plays No. 11 Oklahoma State (8-2) on Dec. 3.</p><p>The Sooners-Mountaineers winner could conceivably jump Penn State next week. But the eventual Big 12 champ will be at a disadvantage because the conference does not play a title game.</p><style>
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<div class="neCaption">Penn State&#8217;s upset of Ohio State back in October has the potential to set up the toughest call in the brief history of the College Football Playoff. </div></div><div class="metaInfo"><photo0>https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/web1_psuplayoff1-1.jpg</photo0><caption0>Penn State&#8217;s upset of Ohio State back in October has the potential to set up the toughest call in the brief history of the College Football Playoff. </caption0><photoCredit0>Chris Knight | AP photo </photoCredit0></div><div class="neFile"><img class="neImage" src="https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/web1_psuplayoff2-1.jpg">
<div class="neCaption">Penn State coach James Franklin has been busy trying to prevent his young team from getting distracted by postseason talk. </div></div><div class="metaInfo"><photo1>https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/web1_psuplayoff2-1.jpg</photo1><caption1>Penn State coach James Franklin has been busy trying to prevent his young team from getting distracted by postseason talk. </caption1><photoCredit1>Darron Cummings | AP photo </photoCredit1></div><div class="neFile"><img class="neImage" src="https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/web1_psuplayoff3-1.jpg">
<div class="neCaption">Penn State&#8217;s College Football Playoff hopes are staked on running back Saquon Barkley, who was named a semifinalist for the Doak Walker Award on Wednesday. </div></div><div class="metaInfo"><photo2>https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/web1_psuplayoff3-1.jpg</photo2><caption2>Penn State&#8217;s College Football Playoff hopes are staked on running back Saquon Barkley, who was named a semifinalist for the Doak Walker Award on Wednesday. </caption2><photoCredit2>Darron Cummings | AP photo </photoCredit2></div></div>
<div class="metaInfo"><bylineMeta><p>By Derek Levarse</p><p>dlevarse@www.timesleader.com</p></bylineMeta></div><div class="metaInfo"><factboxMeta></factboxMeta></div><div class="metaInfo"><shirttailMeta><p>Reach Derek Levarse at 570-991-6396 or on Twitter @TLdlevarse</p></shirttailMeta></div>

Breaking down Penn State’s College Football Playoff chances