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<p>PLAINS TWP. &#8212; The forecast for the U.S. economy is marked with optimism and a hint of risk, according to the keynote speaker at the Greater Wilkes-Barre Chamber of Commerce&#8217;s annual Economic Outlook breakfast, held Thursday morning at Holiday Inn East Mountain.</p><p>Luke Tilley, chief economist for Delaware-based Wilmington Trust, told chamber members that President Donald Trump inherited a rebounding economy that Tilley predicts will continue to grow.</p><p>&#8220;Things are better, dramatically better, than they were a year ago,&#8221; Tilley said. &#8220;And we have some optimism about some of the policies that might be coming from this Trump administration.&#8221;</p><p>He said the presidential election in November was and continues to be a principal driver of the economy, and it wasn&#8217;t dependent on who won.</p><p>Before the election, he said wage growth failed to keep up with inflation, and while average consumers&#8217; spending power flatlined, those making lower-than-average wages saw their spending power decline.</p><p>&#8220;It shouldn&#8217;t be too surprising that we had an election where people were incredibly frustrated and were gravitating toward what I would think of as the angriest candidates in the election &#8212; (Democrat) Bernie Sanders and (Republican) Donald Trump,&#8221; Tilley said. &#8220;&#8230; People were frustrated, and they really wanted big change.&#8221;</p><p>Tilley said a major improvement in the past two years has been the dropping unemployment rate &#8212; he said 15 million jobs have been added since the highest unemployment rate in 2010. Lower unemployment rates mean companies must compete for workers, driving up wages.</p><p>&#8220;We expect (wage pressure) to keep going up,&#8221; Tilley said.</p><p>Tilley said Trump&#8217;s proposed policy changes in corporate tax structure and industry regulations will have a positive effect on corporate earnings, but Trump&#8217;s proposed tax cuts for individuals would worsen the country&#8217;s debt.</p><p>&#8220;These tax cuts are not going to pay for themselves,&#8221; Tilley said.</p><p>He also said Trump&#8217;s volatility in dealing with other countries, including Mexico and China, may have a negative impact if a &#8220;tariff war&#8221; on imports and exports begins, meaning those higher taxes could affect consumers&#8217; wallets.</p><p>&#8220;If we get to a place in which we truly are placing 45 percent tariffs, or less or more, and then you get retaliatory tariffs from those countries, it&#8217;s going to get ugly,&#8221; said Tilley.</p><p>In terms of consumer spending, Tilley said proposed interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve will only help the economy, as higher returns on investments mean Americans will be able to save less to reach their financial goals, leaving funds leftover to spend, or put back into the economy.</p><p>Locally, Tilley said job growth in areas such as health care and education, leisure and hospitality and financial services in December, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, provide an encouraging picture of Northeastern Pennsylvania&#8217;s economy.</p><p>Wico van Genderen, president and CEO of the Greater Wilkes-Barre Chamber of Business and Industry, said he believes the information Tilley presented provides momentum for continued growth and development in downtown Wilkes-Barre and beyond.</p><p>He said seeing health-care companies such as Commonwealth Health&#8217;s <a href="https://www.timesleader.com/news/598377/wilkes-barre-general-hospital-has-some-higher-than-average-mortality-rates" target="_blank">Wilkes-Barre General Hospital</a> spend millions of dollars improving facilities proves this area is worth the investment.</p><p>&#8220;I&#8217;m a business guy at heart,&#8221; said van Genderen. &#8220;If you see cranes in the sky in the city, and you have private investors, not public tax money, that&#8217;s positive.&#8221;</p><p>While Tilley said the nation has seen a dramatic decrease in the number of startup companies over the past decade, van Genderen said Wilkes-Barre in particular has been like a boomtown for entrepreneurs within the past few years.</p><p>He cited the cooperation between universities in the city and the business community, as well as developments such as the Innovation Center &#8212; where Internet marketing company Pepperjam and other tech businesses are located &#8212; because Wilkes-Barre is becoming an incubator of sorts for startup companies in the region.</p><p>He said King&#8217;s College and Wilkes University teach classes aimed at encouraging business development so that &#8220;students have that entrepreneurial mindset already.&#8221;</p><p>&#8220;It&#8217;s a very interesting time for this area,&#8221; said van Genderen.</p><p>Larry Newman, executive director of the <a href="https://www.timesleader.com/news/490476/downtown-wilkes-barre-putting-big-push-behind-small-business-promotion" target="_blank">Diamond City Partnership</a>, said Tilley&#8217;s overview was especially helpful in realizing the economy&#8217;s effect on the latest presidential election.</p><p>&#8220;Things the presentation made clear, it helped to illustrate in economic terms why, despite the fact that the national economy has been showing signs of improvement the past several years, why those gains have not necessarily been translating universally across the geographical and income spectrum,&#8221; he said.</p><style>
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<div class="neCaption">Tilley </div></div><div class="metaInfo"><photo0>https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/web1_Luke_Tilley-5.jpg</photo0><caption0>Tilley </caption0><photoCredit0></photoCredit0></div><div class="neFile"><img class="neImage" src="https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/web1_hando-pic-5.jpg">
<div class="neCaption">Luke Tilley, chief economist for Wilmington Trust, speaks to members of the Greater Wilkes-Barre Chamber of Commerce about the economy on Thursday morning. 'Things are better, dramatically better, than they were a year ago,' Tilley said. (Tim Farkas / Times Leader)</div></div><div class="metaInfo"><photo1>https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/web1_hando-pic-5.jpg</photo1><caption1>Luke Tilley, chief economist for Wilmington Trust, speaks to members of the Greater Wilkes-Barre Chamber of Commerce about the economy on Thursday morning. 'Things are better, dramatically better, than they were a year ago,' Tilley said. (Tim Farkas / Times Leader)</caption1><photoCredit1></photoCredit1></div></div>
<div class="metaInfo"><subheadMeta>Locally, job growth in health-care sector provides encouragement</subheadMeta></div><div class="metaInfo"><bylineMeta><p>By Sarah Hite Hando</p><p>shando@www.timesleader.com</p></bylineMeta></div><div class="metaInfo"><shirttailMeta><p>Reach Sarah Hite Hando at 570-704-3945.</p></shirttailMeta></div>

Optimism, with risk, focus of Greater Wilkes-Barre Chamber breakfast